Macaca
12-28 06:33 PM
India asserting its interests vis-a-vis China (http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20101228a2.html) By Harsh Pant | Japan Times
India hosted Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this month in an attempt to stabilize Sino-Indian ties, which have undergone great turbulence the past two years.
There was no dearth of warm words during the visit: Wen, in a lecture in New Delhi, invoked Mahatma Gandhi as "a man of love and integrity" who "has always lived in my heart." He stressed that although Sino-Indian relations have experienced major turns, they were only a short episode in a 2000-year history of friendly bilateral exchanges.
Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna reciprocated by suggesting that the two nations do not see any contradiction in each other's rise and that both understand the importance of leveraging growth and development with mutual cooperation.
As in the past, economic ties ended up being the focus of the visit. The two sides have now set a target of $100 billion in trade expansion by 2015 from the present $60 billion. Wen had come to India with a group of around 300 Chinese executives; business deals worth about $16 billion were signed. But there was no progress on the regional trade agreement as India remains concerned about its growing trade deficit with China.
China did not concede to India on any major issue while India decided to play hardball on various issues of importance to China. Wen, for example, refused to acknowledge Indian concerns over China's issuance of stapled visas to the residents of Jammu and Kashmir, the growing Chinese presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and anti-India terrorist groups operating from Pakistan. Unlike other major powers, China has refused to unambiguously demand that Pakistan shut down the terrorist infrastructure on its soil.
For its part, India this time refused to explicitly state that it recognizes the Tibet Autonomous Region as part of the Chinese territory.
There was little movement on a range of concerns that India had flagged before the visit. India had expressed concerns about Beijing damming rivers like the Brahmaputra as well as the nontariff trade barriers to Indian companies in China. India remains keen on gaining access to Chinese markets, especially in the area of pharmaceuticals, information technology and engineering goods.
Despite the lackluster nature of Wen's India trip, the newfound robustness in India's China policy in recent months is rather striking. After trying to push significant differences with China under the carpet for years, Indian decision-makers are being forced to grudgingly acknowledge that the relationship with China is becoming more contentious.
India has adopted a harder line on Tibet in recent weeks by making it clear to Beijing that it expects China to reciprocate on Jammu and Kashmir just as India has respected Chinese sensitivities on Tibet and Taiwan.
Ignoring pressures from Beijing, India decided to take part in the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in Oslo. Beijing had asked several countries, including India, to boycott the ceremony, describing the prize as open support for criminal activities in China. India was among the 44 states that did participate; Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq were among the nations that did not attend. There were rumors that Wen might cancel his India trip in response.
India's challenge is indeed formidable as it has not yet achieved the economic and political profile that China enjoys regionally and globally. But it gets increasingly bracketed with China as a rising power, emerging power or even a global superpower. India's main security concern is not the increasingly decrepit state of Pakistan but an ever more assertive China, which is widely viewed in India as having a better ability for strategic planning.
Indian policymakers, however, continue to believe that Beijing is not a short-term threat to India but needs to be watched over the long term even as Indian defense officials increasingly warn in rather blunt terms about the disparity between the two Asian powers.
India's naval chief has warned that India has neither "the capability nor the intention to match China force for force," while the former Indian air chief has suggested that China poses more of a threat to India than Pakistan.
It is certainly in the interest of both India and China to stabilize their relationship by seeking out issues on which their interests converge. But strategic problems do not necessarily make for satisfactory solutions merely because they are desirable and in the interest of all.
For a long time, India was not very important in China's foreign policy calculus, and there was a general perception that India could be easily pushed around. New Delhi's own actions also cemented a perception in China that it was easier to challenge Indian interests without incurring any cost.
New Delhi's latest robustness in its dealings with Beijing should, therefore, be welcomed insofar as it clarifies certain red lines that remain nonnegotiable.
Harsh V. Pant teaches at King's College London
Asia's Busy 2010 in Review (http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/12/28/asias_busy_2010_in_review_99328.html) By Todd Crowell | RealClearWorld
Emerging Powers and Cooperative Security in Asia (http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP221.pdf) By Joshy M. Paul | S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
India hosted Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this month in an attempt to stabilize Sino-Indian ties, which have undergone great turbulence the past two years.
There was no dearth of warm words during the visit: Wen, in a lecture in New Delhi, invoked Mahatma Gandhi as "a man of love and integrity" who "has always lived in my heart." He stressed that although Sino-Indian relations have experienced major turns, they were only a short episode in a 2000-year history of friendly bilateral exchanges.
Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna reciprocated by suggesting that the two nations do not see any contradiction in each other's rise and that both understand the importance of leveraging growth and development with mutual cooperation.
As in the past, economic ties ended up being the focus of the visit. The two sides have now set a target of $100 billion in trade expansion by 2015 from the present $60 billion. Wen had come to India with a group of around 300 Chinese executives; business deals worth about $16 billion were signed. But there was no progress on the regional trade agreement as India remains concerned about its growing trade deficit with China.
China did not concede to India on any major issue while India decided to play hardball on various issues of importance to China. Wen, for example, refused to acknowledge Indian concerns over China's issuance of stapled visas to the residents of Jammu and Kashmir, the growing Chinese presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and anti-India terrorist groups operating from Pakistan. Unlike other major powers, China has refused to unambiguously demand that Pakistan shut down the terrorist infrastructure on its soil.
For its part, India this time refused to explicitly state that it recognizes the Tibet Autonomous Region as part of the Chinese territory.
There was little movement on a range of concerns that India had flagged before the visit. India had expressed concerns about Beijing damming rivers like the Brahmaputra as well as the nontariff trade barriers to Indian companies in China. India remains keen on gaining access to Chinese markets, especially in the area of pharmaceuticals, information technology and engineering goods.
Despite the lackluster nature of Wen's India trip, the newfound robustness in India's China policy in recent months is rather striking. After trying to push significant differences with China under the carpet for years, Indian decision-makers are being forced to grudgingly acknowledge that the relationship with China is becoming more contentious.
India has adopted a harder line on Tibet in recent weeks by making it clear to Beijing that it expects China to reciprocate on Jammu and Kashmir just as India has respected Chinese sensitivities on Tibet and Taiwan.
Ignoring pressures from Beijing, India decided to take part in the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in Oslo. Beijing had asked several countries, including India, to boycott the ceremony, describing the prize as open support for criminal activities in China. India was among the 44 states that did participate; Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq were among the nations that did not attend. There were rumors that Wen might cancel his India trip in response.
India's challenge is indeed formidable as it has not yet achieved the economic and political profile that China enjoys regionally and globally. But it gets increasingly bracketed with China as a rising power, emerging power or even a global superpower. India's main security concern is not the increasingly decrepit state of Pakistan but an ever more assertive China, which is widely viewed in India as having a better ability for strategic planning.
Indian policymakers, however, continue to believe that Beijing is not a short-term threat to India but needs to be watched over the long term even as Indian defense officials increasingly warn in rather blunt terms about the disparity between the two Asian powers.
India's naval chief has warned that India has neither "the capability nor the intention to match China force for force," while the former Indian air chief has suggested that China poses more of a threat to India than Pakistan.
It is certainly in the interest of both India and China to stabilize their relationship by seeking out issues on which their interests converge. But strategic problems do not necessarily make for satisfactory solutions merely because they are desirable and in the interest of all.
For a long time, India was not very important in China's foreign policy calculus, and there was a general perception that India could be easily pushed around. New Delhi's own actions also cemented a perception in China that it was easier to challenge Indian interests without incurring any cost.
New Delhi's latest robustness in its dealings with Beijing should, therefore, be welcomed insofar as it clarifies certain red lines that remain nonnegotiable.
Harsh V. Pant teaches at King's College London
Asia's Busy 2010 in Review (http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/12/28/asias_busy_2010_in_review_99328.html) By Todd Crowell | RealClearWorld
Emerging Powers and Cooperative Security in Asia (http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP221.pdf) By Joshy M. Paul | S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
wallpaper Old English font on tattoo
paskal
07-08 08:46 PM
I have been here 11 years. 4 different employers.
I have all my returns and W2's
why in the world would i keep every paystub?
makes no sense. of course little does.
UN thanks for the comments.
any predictions on where we are headed? my vested interest is in EB2 india...
btw why is everyone presuming that the 60,000 approvals went to India and China? EB3 ROW is retrogressed- all the extra numbers could have gone there. that would in any case be all the better for india/china in the longer term- the faster that backlog is finished, the greater the chance india/china lines will show meaningful movement.
also did you notice the cantwell-kyl compromise amendment in the failed CIR 2007 had a provision for 485 filing w/o visa numbers current?
I have all my returns and W2's
why in the world would i keep every paystub?
makes no sense. of course little does.
UN thanks for the comments.
any predictions on where we are headed? my vested interest is in EB2 india...
btw why is everyone presuming that the 60,000 approvals went to India and China? EB3 ROW is retrogressed- all the extra numbers could have gone there. that would in any case be all the better for india/china in the longer term- the faster that backlog is finished, the greater the chance india/china lines will show meaningful movement.
also did you notice the cantwell-kyl compromise amendment in the failed CIR 2007 had a provision for 485 filing w/o visa numbers current?
unitednations
03-24 02:27 PM
Why on earth would an employer need me if I don't have merits?
I see your efforts to downgrade EB immigration and highlight FB immigration. This is just my observation, you don't have to agree or criticize it.
Is it fair to say that on one side you have the people who are trying to limit immigration.
On the other side you have people who want friendlier immigration policies. Within the friendlier immigration poliices; you have more self interest groups:
h-1b group of self interest
Liberia self interest groups
lawful permanent resident spouse
political asylum groups
aged out groups
universities with student visas
unlawful interest groups
h-2 groups
nurses, etc.
employment base groups.
All of these self interest groups go to media, senators, congressment etc., with their stories and why they think they should have their demands met. My personal opinion is that if a person can stay here and legally work and wait then they are not as disadvantaged as companies/people who are waiting to get in.
When you are going to do advocacy you need to know beyond your individual case and how you stack up across the board.
I see your efforts to downgrade EB immigration and highlight FB immigration. This is just my observation, you don't have to agree or criticize it.
Is it fair to say that on one side you have the people who are trying to limit immigration.
On the other side you have people who want friendlier immigration policies. Within the friendlier immigration poliices; you have more self interest groups:
h-1b group of self interest
Liberia self interest groups
lawful permanent resident spouse
political asylum groups
aged out groups
universities with student visas
unlawful interest groups
h-2 groups
nurses, etc.
employment base groups.
All of these self interest groups go to media, senators, congressment etc., with their stories and why they think they should have their demands met. My personal opinion is that if a person can stay here and legally work and wait then they are not as disadvantaged as companies/people who are waiting to get in.
When you are going to do advocacy you need to know beyond your individual case and how you stack up across the board.
2011 Old English
rsdang
08-29 10:58 AM
:D We've all been there, but don't like to admit it. We've all kicked
back in our cubicles and suddenly felt something brewing down below. As
much as we try to convince ourselves otherwise, the WORK POOP is
inevitable.
For those who hate pooping at work, following is the Survival Guide
for Taking a dump at work.
*CROP DUSTING* - When farting, you walk really fast around the
office so the smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff, but no
one knows where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop
until the full fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure
the smell has left your pants.
*FLY BY* - The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk
in and check for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom,
leave and come back again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER.
People may become suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.
*ESCAPEE* - A fart that slips out while taking a pee or forcing a
poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of
embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it.
Pretend it did not happen. If you are a man and are standing next to the farter in the urinal,
pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable for all involved.
Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.
*JAILBREAK*- When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine
gun pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover.
If this should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has
left the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.
*COURTESY FLUSH* - The act of flushing the toilet the instant the
poop hits the water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to
stink up the bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the
WALK OF SHAME.
*WALK OF SHAME* - Walking from the stall-to the sink-to the door
after you have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable
moment if someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to
pretend that the smell does not exist.--Can be avoided with the use of
the COURTESY FLUSH.
*OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER* - A colleague who poops at work and is
Dog-gone proud of it. You will often see an Out-Of-The-Closet Pooper
enter the bathroom with a newspaper or magazine under their arm.
Always look around the office for the Out-Of- The-Closet Pooper before
entering the bathroom.
*THE POOPING FRIENDS NETWORK (P.F.N)* A group of co-workers who band
together to ensure emergency pooping goes off without incident. This
group can help you to monitor the whereabouts of Out-Of-The-Closet
Poopers and identify SAFE HAVENS.
*SAFE HAVENS* A seldom-used bathroom somewhere in t he building
where you can least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of
the opposite sex. This will reduce the odds of a pooper of your sex
entering the bathroom.
*TURD BURGLAR* - Someone who does not realize that you are in the
stall and tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking
and vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If
this occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way
you will avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.
*CAMO-COUGH* A phony cough that alerts all new entrants into the
bathroom that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a
WATERMELON, or to alert potential *Turd Burglars* - Very effective when used in conjunction with a
SHIRLEY TEMPLE .
*SHIRLEY TEMPLE* - A subtle toe-tapping that is used to alert
potential Turd Burglars that you are occupying a stall. This will remove all
doubt that the stall is occupied. If you hea r a SHIRLEY TEMPLE, leave the
bathroom immediately so the pooper can poop in peace.
*WATERMELON* - A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the
toilet water. This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a
Watermelon coming on, create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.
*HAVANAOMELET* - A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud
splashes in the toilet water--often accompanied by an Escapee. Try
using a CAMO-COUGH with a SHIRLEY TEMPLE.
*AUNT BETTY* - A bathroom user who seems to linger around
forever...Could spend extended lengths of time in front of the
mirror or sitting on the pot.
An AUNT BETTY makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as
you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits
you as well as the other bathroom attendees
************************************************** ******************
SOME VARIETIES~
*The King Poop* - This kind is the kind of poop that killed Elvis.
It doesn't come until you're all sweaty, trembling and purple from
straining so hard.
*Bali Belly Poop* - You poop so much you lose 5 lbs.
*Cement Block* - You wish you'd gotten a spinal block before you
poop.
*Cork Poop* - (Also Known as Floater Poop) = Even after the third
flush, it's still floating in there. How do I get rid of it? This poop
usually happens at someone else's house.
*The Bungee Poop* - The kind of poop that just hangs off your rear
before it falls into the water.
*The Crippler* - The kind of poop where you have to sit on the
toilet so long your legs go numb from the waist down.
*The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang* - The kind of poop that hits you when
you're trapped in your car in a traffic jam.
*The Party Pooper* - The giant poop you take at a party and, when
you flush the toilet, you watch in horror as the water starts to rise.
back in our cubicles and suddenly felt something brewing down below. As
much as we try to convince ourselves otherwise, the WORK POOP is
inevitable.
For those who hate pooping at work, following is the Survival Guide
for Taking a dump at work.
*CROP DUSTING* - When farting, you walk really fast around the
office so the smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff, but no
one knows where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop
until the full fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure
the smell has left your pants.
*FLY BY* - The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk
in and check for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom,
leave and come back again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER.
People may become suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.
*ESCAPEE* - A fart that slips out while taking a pee or forcing a
poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of
embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it.
Pretend it did not happen. If you are a man and are standing next to the farter in the urinal,
pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable for all involved.
Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.
*JAILBREAK*- When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine
gun pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover.
If this should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has
left the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.
*COURTESY FLUSH* - The act of flushing the toilet the instant the
poop hits the water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to
stink up the bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the
WALK OF SHAME.
*WALK OF SHAME* - Walking from the stall-to the sink-to the door
after you have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable
moment if someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to
pretend that the smell does not exist.--Can be avoided with the use of
the COURTESY FLUSH.
*OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER* - A colleague who poops at work and is
Dog-gone proud of it. You will often see an Out-Of-The-Closet Pooper
enter the bathroom with a newspaper or magazine under their arm.
Always look around the office for the Out-Of- The-Closet Pooper before
entering the bathroom.
*THE POOPING FRIENDS NETWORK (P.F.N)* A group of co-workers who band
together to ensure emergency pooping goes off without incident. This
group can help you to monitor the whereabouts of Out-Of-The-Closet
Poopers and identify SAFE HAVENS.
*SAFE HAVENS* A seldom-used bathroom somewhere in t he building
where you can least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of
the opposite sex. This will reduce the odds of a pooper of your sex
entering the bathroom.
*TURD BURGLAR* - Someone who does not realize that you are in the
stall and tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking
and vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If
this occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way
you will avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.
*CAMO-COUGH* A phony cough that alerts all new entrants into the
bathroom that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a
WATERMELON, or to alert potential *Turd Burglars* - Very effective when used in conjunction with a
SHIRLEY TEMPLE .
*SHIRLEY TEMPLE* - A subtle toe-tapping that is used to alert
potential Turd Burglars that you are occupying a stall. This will remove all
doubt that the stall is occupied. If you hea r a SHIRLEY TEMPLE, leave the
bathroom immediately so the pooper can poop in peace.
*WATERMELON* - A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the
toilet water. This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a
Watermelon coming on, create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.
*HAVANAOMELET* - A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud
splashes in the toilet water--often accompanied by an Escapee. Try
using a CAMO-COUGH with a SHIRLEY TEMPLE.
*AUNT BETTY* - A bathroom user who seems to linger around
forever...Could spend extended lengths of time in front of the
mirror or sitting on the pot.
An AUNT BETTY makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as
you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits
you as well as the other bathroom attendees
************************************************** ******************
SOME VARIETIES~
*The King Poop* - This kind is the kind of poop that killed Elvis.
It doesn't come until you're all sweaty, trembling and purple from
straining so hard.
*Bali Belly Poop* - You poop so much you lose 5 lbs.
*Cement Block* - You wish you'd gotten a spinal block before you
poop.
*Cork Poop* - (Also Known as Floater Poop) = Even after the third
flush, it's still floating in there. How do I get rid of it? This poop
usually happens at someone else's house.
*The Bungee Poop* - The kind of poop that just hangs off your rear
before it falls into the water.
*The Crippler* - The kind of poop where you have to sit on the
toilet so long your legs go numb from the waist down.
*The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang* - The kind of poop that hits you when
you're trapped in your car in a traffic jam.
*The Party Pooper* - The giant poop you take at a party and, when
you flush the toilet, you watch in horror as the water starts to rise.
more...
rheoretro
11-12 04:46 PM
It's at the very least peculiar that some states don't have any activity through IV. The one in which I live is one of those. Even more amazing, I personally don't know anyone in my city or any other city, stuck in my same situation because of retrogression. Strange, but true.
Amen, brother/sister! Where are these half million people? 500,000 divided by 50 states makes for 10000 in each state (on an average; although I doubt that Alaska and Hawaii have that many, while states like NY, CA, NJ, IL, FL, TX, PA must beat the mean for sure, but still). 6500 ain't enough!
Amen, brother/sister! Where are these half million people? 500,000 divided by 50 states makes for 10000 in each state (on an average; although I doubt that Alaska and Hawaii have that many, while states like NY, CA, NJ, IL, FL, TX, PA must beat the mean for sure, but still). 6500 ain't enough!
lfwf
08-06 03:38 PM
Dude, I did not personally bash anyone let alone give you a red dot, I was just putting forth my opinions which you and some of our ilk did not like which is fair enough.
You guys saying guys with Masters are from heaven compared to EB3 guys getting 5+ years experience is like personally bashing each and everyone who falls in that category.
You repeatedly insist on looking at things that way. No one is from heaven and no one is precluding Bs+5 from applying for EB2. They should, why not?
The question is only: Is it fair for them to get that entire 5 years in their PD as a jump on those who filed EB2 after an advanced degree. That's it. Nothing more or less than that. Please don't read needless nonsense into this. I have no interest in inferior, superior, holier, more genuine etc.
Nor am i bashing experience and all that. the question simply whether the advantage for going from EB3 to Eb2 should be magnified by allowing the old PD to be ported with it. This kind of situation puts people like me (7 years of education! multiple degrees...) at a serious disadvantage. We would potentially have to wait for every single EB3 that came to the US >5 years ago (even well after we came) to get their GC before ever standing a chance.
Because they would all be BS+5....and we can't match their PDs. And we have waited as long or more.
You guys saying guys with Masters are from heaven compared to EB3 guys getting 5+ years experience is like personally bashing each and everyone who falls in that category.
You repeatedly insist on looking at things that way. No one is from heaven and no one is precluding Bs+5 from applying for EB2. They should, why not?
The question is only: Is it fair for them to get that entire 5 years in their PD as a jump on those who filed EB2 after an advanced degree. That's it. Nothing more or less than that. Please don't read needless nonsense into this. I have no interest in inferior, superior, holier, more genuine etc.
Nor am i bashing experience and all that. the question simply whether the advantage for going from EB3 to Eb2 should be magnified by allowing the old PD to be ported with it. This kind of situation puts people like me (7 years of education! multiple degrees...) at a serious disadvantage. We would potentially have to wait for every single EB3 that came to the US >5 years ago (even well after we came) to get their GC before ever standing a chance.
Because they would all be BS+5....and we can't match their PDs. And we have waited as long or more.
more...
hiralal
06-04 10:07 PM
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
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sumanitha
12-22 07:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VORdATj6s4w&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=zakir+naik+2008&emb=0&aq=1&oq=zakir+nai
more...
anjans
07-14 03:38 PM
Missed point: The job needs to need that progressive experience and should call out to say that your job needs BS+5yrs. if it did the lawyers should not file EB3
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alisa
12-27 12:55 AM
You are from Pakistan, you tell why you are doing this. Why are you asking us to explain your actions?
Well...
Thats a bit like asking one's father to explain the actions of Josef Fritzl.
Well...
Thats a bit like asking one's father to explain the actions of Josef Fritzl.
more...
StuckInTheMuck
08-07 10:31 AM
Some actual bumper stickers:
* Watch for finger.
* Your kid may be an honors student, but you're still an idiot.
* Cover me. I'm changing lanes.
* Learn from your parents' mistakes - use birth control.
* Forget about World Peace...Visualize using your turn signal.
* I get enough exercise just pushing my luck.
* I didn't fight my way to the top of the food chain to be a vegetarian.
* Women who seek to be equal to men lack ambition.
* I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
* Hard work has a future payoff. Laziness pays off NOW.
* Some people are only alive because it is illegal to kill.
* Warning: Dates in Calendar are closer than they appear.
* Keep honking...I'm reloading.
* Caution: I drive like you do.
* Watch for finger.
* Your kid may be an honors student, but you're still an idiot.
* Cover me. I'm changing lanes.
* Learn from your parents' mistakes - use birth control.
* Forget about World Peace...Visualize using your turn signal.
* I get enough exercise just pushing my luck.
* I didn't fight my way to the top of the food chain to be a vegetarian.
* Women who seek to be equal to men lack ambition.
* I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
* Hard work has a future payoff. Laziness pays off NOW.
* Some people are only alive because it is illegal to kill.
* Warning: Dates in Calendar are closer than they appear.
* Keep honking...I'm reloading.
* Caution: I drive like you do.
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bharol
01-08 12:11 AM
Blaming any religion on terrorism is inappropriate, inflammatory, and just plain irresponsible.
Here's some proof for you:
MI5 report challenges views on terrorism in Britain (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/aug/20/uksecurity.terrorism1?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront)
And I'll give you a couple specific examples :
Al-Fakhoura School Bombed, 42 Killed, Including Children; 13,000 Homeless; Water, Medicine in Short Supply (http://www.juancole.com/2009/01/al-fakhoura-school-bombed-42-killed.html)
Muhammad Atta was radicalized by watching the gruesome results of that attack and he was a 9/11 hijacker. (He flew one of the planes.) That attack happened to be Israel bombing a school in 1986.
Torture trail to September 11 : A two-part investigation into state brutality opens with a look at how the violent interrogation of Islamist extremists hardened their views, helped to create al-Qaida and now, more than ever, is fuelling fundamentalist hatred (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/jan/24/alqaida.terrorism1)
Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, for example was tortured in Egypt. He was Al Q's number 2 and known as the "brains" behind the 9/11 attacks. He was a successful doctor.
It is not religion that makes people willing to blow up themselves and kill others. It is perceived oppression against one's people. If you look closely enough, you will find it.
Blaming religious beliefs on terrorism is sloppy thinking that:
inflames people
justifies further violence
divides people
creates more terrorism
The IRA, Shining Path, the Basques, and yes, Al Q, all have one thing in common: their political aspirations for their people to be freed from what they see as oppression. The Irish Catholics weren't allowed good jobs. Peruvian Marxists were unhappy with their government. The Basques were mistreated by Franco. Many Middle Easterners want the right to form their own governments, which we in the west actively prevent by supporting dictatorships.
Invariably, when people blame religion for some injustice, there is a political or economic reason behind it. The Crusades, for example, were not about converting people, but about wealth, power and what they saw as "glory".
Please stop with the religious scape goating, bigotry and hatred. It leads nowhere but down.
If they don't want the religion to be blamed, they should not give religious sounding names to their organizations like JAISH-E-MOHAMMAD, LASHKAR-E-TAIBA etc and then call their killings a JIHAD.
Here's some proof for you:
MI5 report challenges views on terrorism in Britain (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/aug/20/uksecurity.terrorism1?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront)
And I'll give you a couple specific examples :
Al-Fakhoura School Bombed, 42 Killed, Including Children; 13,000 Homeless; Water, Medicine in Short Supply (http://www.juancole.com/2009/01/al-fakhoura-school-bombed-42-killed.html)
Muhammad Atta was radicalized by watching the gruesome results of that attack and he was a 9/11 hijacker. (He flew one of the planes.) That attack happened to be Israel bombing a school in 1986.
Torture trail to September 11 : A two-part investigation into state brutality opens with a look at how the violent interrogation of Islamist extremists hardened their views, helped to create al-Qaida and now, more than ever, is fuelling fundamentalist hatred (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/jan/24/alqaida.terrorism1)
Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, for example was tortured in Egypt. He was Al Q's number 2 and known as the "brains" behind the 9/11 attacks. He was a successful doctor.
It is not religion that makes people willing to blow up themselves and kill others. It is perceived oppression against one's people. If you look closely enough, you will find it.
Blaming religious beliefs on terrorism is sloppy thinking that:
inflames people
justifies further violence
divides people
creates more terrorism
The IRA, Shining Path, the Basques, and yes, Al Q, all have one thing in common: their political aspirations for their people to be freed from what they see as oppression. The Irish Catholics weren't allowed good jobs. Peruvian Marxists were unhappy with their government. The Basques were mistreated by Franco. Many Middle Easterners want the right to form their own governments, which we in the west actively prevent by supporting dictatorships.
Invariably, when people blame religion for some injustice, there is a political or economic reason behind it. The Crusades, for example, were not about converting people, but about wealth, power and what they saw as "glory".
Please stop with the religious scape goating, bigotry and hatred. It leads nowhere but down.
If they don't want the religion to be blamed, they should not give religious sounding names to their organizations like JAISH-E-MOHAMMAD, LASHKAR-E-TAIBA etc and then call their killings a JIHAD.
more...
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hpandey
06-26 03:41 PM
There is a myth with deduction:
Deduction is not same as TAX credit. When you get a tax credit of $3000 . you save $3000, but when you get $3000 tax deduction, you only save $3000 * .28 or .33 whatever is your highest tax bracket. For most married couples it should be either 28% or 33% of their income. Hence you only save 28% of the interest + taxes. It can help further reduce your tax bracket if you have educational loan or charity contributions etc by bringing your taxable income down. Further reduction in tax bracket can help you qualify for additional deductions.
However, if I am paying $1000 as interest, then I am only saving $310 or $280 in deudctions, but I am still left to pay $690 as interest.
ValidIV, is stressing on 30 yrs of home ownership, however, what we are saying is prices may go down 20% further. If that happens, then you are losing your downpayment and it may take years for your home value return to what you paid with interest.
If you buy a house $550K, over 30 years you end up paying more than 600K in interest only. Forget about taxes or HOA fees. Calculate the tax deductions and let me know how much sense did it make to pay that amount if the value of house further depreciates 20% in next 2 years Vs. waiting for 2 years, having 1-2% rate increase, going in with double down payment and flat house price or 1-2% increase.
Again where are you getting that 550K value for a house from . The houses that were 500K two years back are now 400 - 450K ( exclude the extremes ). Why the HOA - can't the house be a single family home like most of US .
Taxes - well I was not saying you get the whole money back but are taxes the only reason one should not buy a house ?
Housing price correction has already happened in most of the good areas. If you think that they are going to go down 20% more that is never going to happen. People are not going to sell. They will just say put rather than take a 40% loss.
Deduction is not same as TAX credit. When you get a tax credit of $3000 . you save $3000, but when you get $3000 tax deduction, you only save $3000 * .28 or .33 whatever is your highest tax bracket. For most married couples it should be either 28% or 33% of their income. Hence you only save 28% of the interest + taxes. It can help further reduce your tax bracket if you have educational loan or charity contributions etc by bringing your taxable income down. Further reduction in tax bracket can help you qualify for additional deductions.
However, if I am paying $1000 as interest, then I am only saving $310 or $280 in deudctions, but I am still left to pay $690 as interest.
ValidIV, is stressing on 30 yrs of home ownership, however, what we are saying is prices may go down 20% further. If that happens, then you are losing your downpayment and it may take years for your home value return to what you paid with interest.
If you buy a house $550K, over 30 years you end up paying more than 600K in interest only. Forget about taxes or HOA fees. Calculate the tax deductions and let me know how much sense did it make to pay that amount if the value of house further depreciates 20% in next 2 years Vs. waiting for 2 years, having 1-2% rate increase, going in with double down payment and flat house price or 1-2% increase.
Again where are you getting that 550K value for a house from . The houses that were 500K two years back are now 400 - 450K ( exclude the extremes ). Why the HOA - can't the house be a single family home like most of US .
Taxes - well I was not saying you get the whole money back but are taxes the only reason one should not buy a house ?
Housing price correction has already happened in most of the good areas. If you think that they are going to go down 20% more that is never going to happen. People are not going to sell. They will just say put rather than take a 40% loss.
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satishku_2000
05-16 05:00 PM
A lot of people don't seem to grasp the fact that what they are doing IS ILLEGAL. Body shopping and everything that goes along with it is against the law in this country, and it is also violating the conditions of the H-1B application. It may be acceptable to you in your mind to do it but the bottom line is -- it's illegal. I am surprised you are crying about illegalities being stopped in this country. There is really not much to debate -- of course it is not an acceptable business model WHEN IT IS ILLEGAL. You can stock up for a business opening on a number of goods -- computers, printers, software etc. BUT NOT SOMETHING THAT IS AGAINST THE LAW. Glad to see congress agreeing with that.
Do you stand with Sen. Durbin on amnesty/legalization for illegal/undocumented people while creating problems for tax paying and law abiding consultants? This will be height of hypocrosy...
Do you stand with Sen. Durbin on amnesty/legalization for illegal/undocumented people while creating problems for tax paying and law abiding consultants? This will be height of hypocrosy...
more...
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nojoke
04-17 04:13 PM
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080417.aspx
It is down by 100K compared to last year. Just like I said, every year it is going to be 100K down for 2 more years.:D
It is down by 100K compared to last year. Just like I said, every year it is going to be 100K down for 2 more years.:D
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SunnySurya
08-05 03:25 PM
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hiralal
06-08 10:54 PM
I think nowadays you can get great deals in suwanee area, but in alpharetta area (ATLANTA) which is couple of exits towards the city on 400 highway.. are still selling for 400K..I am talking about 3000 sq ft, houses.. I got a quote for 420K with basement 3070 sqft.. with decent upgrades...
and these homes are closely built compared to the ones in suwanee area..
The homes prices never came down in these areas!!
prices in suwanee (and in alpharetta) has come down a lot ..ofcourse you need to look ..if you try to buy from a person in denial ..you will feel prices have not come down. but there are lot of bargains in these areas
and these homes are closely built compared to the ones in suwanee area..
The homes prices never came down in these areas!!
prices in suwanee (and in alpharetta) has come down a lot ..ofcourse you need to look ..if you try to buy from a person in denial ..you will feel prices have not come down. but there are lot of bargains in these areas
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xyzgc
12-22 11:35 PM
Muslims have a very proud history (along with issues like most religions/races). Lets hope the people on all sides tone down the rheotric and live and let live
Hindus also have a history and we are proud of it.
Despite all the agressions by the barbaric islamic hordes, Hinduism has not only survived, it has actually flourished.
We are proud of the fact that we didn't attack other countries and pillage other lands.
Hindus also have a history and we are proud of it.
Despite all the agressions by the barbaric islamic hordes, Hinduism has not only survived, it has actually flourished.
We are proud of the fact that we didn't attack other countries and pillage other lands.
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gc_aspirant_prasad
09-26 02:52 PM
Whats even worse is that our son who is a US citizen will grow up in some other nation.
Well.. time to move on.
For a number of us this is the unfortunate truth, that our US citizen children will grow up in other countries and may never have the opportunity to form the strong bond with the land of their birth. If they return, they will have to undertake the hard process of acclimatization again.
For those of us who have slightly older children like teens and such - its going to be a major issue as they will have spent considerable time in this system ( educational / social ).
Well.. time to move on.
For a number of us this is the unfortunate truth, that our US citizen children will grow up in other countries and may never have the opportunity to form the strong bond with the land of their birth. If they return, they will have to undertake the hard process of acclimatization again.
For those of us who have slightly older children like teens and such - its going to be a major issue as they will have spent considerable time in this system ( educational / social ).
nogc_noproblem
08-26 07:19 PM
Two rednecks were looking at a Sears catalog and admiring the models.
One says to the other, 'Have you seen the beautiful girls in this catalog?'
The second one replies, 'Yes, they are very beautiful. And look at the price!'
The first one says, with wide eyes, 'Wow, they aren't very expensive. At this price, I'm buying one.'
The second one smiles and pats him on the back. 'Good idea! Order one and if she's as beautiful as she is in the catalog, I will get one too.'
Three weeks later, the youngest redneck asks his friend, 'Did you ever receive the girl you ordered from the Sears catalog?'
The second redneck replies, 'No, but it shouldn't be long now. I got her clothes yesterday!'
One says to the other, 'Have you seen the beautiful girls in this catalog?'
The second one replies, 'Yes, they are very beautiful. And look at the price!'
The first one says, with wide eyes, 'Wow, they aren't very expensive. At this price, I'm buying one.'
The second one smiles and pats him on the back. 'Good idea! Order one and if she's as beautiful as she is in the catalog, I will get one too.'
Three weeks later, the youngest redneck asks his friend, 'Did you ever receive the girl you ordered from the Sears catalog?'
The second redneck replies, 'No, but it shouldn't be long now. I got her clothes yesterday!'
yrspassby
08-06 03:44 PM
PEOPLE WONDER WHY THEY R PAID SO
16). A plain computer illeterate guy rings tech support to report that his computer is faulty.
Tech: What's the problem?
User: There is smoke coming out of the power supply.
Tech: You'll need a new power supply.
User: No, I don't! I just need to change the startup files.
Tech: Sir, the power supply is faulty. You'll need to replace it.
User: No way! Someone told me that I just needed to
change the startup and it will fix the problem! All I need is for you to tell me the command.
****
10 minutes later, the User is still adamant that he is right. The tech is frustrated and fed up.
Tech: Sorry, Sir. We don't normally tell our customers this, but there is an undocumented DOS
command that will fix the problem.
User: I knew it!
Tech: Just add the line LOAD NOSMOKE.COM at the end of the CONFIG.SYS.
Letme know how it goes.
****
10 minutes later.
User: It didn't work. The power supply is still smoking.
Tech: Well, what version of DOS are you using?
User: MS-DOS 6.22.
Tech: That's your problem there. That version of DOS didn't come with NOSMOKE. Contact Microsoft and ask them for a patch that will give you ! the file. Let me know how it goes.
1 hour later.
User: I need a new power supply.
Tech: How did you come to that conclusion?
User: Well, I rang Microsoft and told him about what you said, and he started asking questions about the make of power supply.
Tech: Then what did he say?
User: He told me that my power supply isn't compatible with NOSMOKE.
This one cracked me up so hard, I had to go out to patio to laugh hard and come back to my cube...This is awesome ... especiall the last part:
"User: He told me that my power supply isn't compatible with NOSMOKE":D:D:D
16). A plain computer illeterate guy rings tech support to report that his computer is faulty.
Tech: What's the problem?
User: There is smoke coming out of the power supply.
Tech: You'll need a new power supply.
User: No, I don't! I just need to change the startup files.
Tech: Sir, the power supply is faulty. You'll need to replace it.
User: No way! Someone told me that I just needed to
change the startup and it will fix the problem! All I need is for you to tell me the command.
****
10 minutes later, the User is still adamant that he is right. The tech is frustrated and fed up.
Tech: Sorry, Sir. We don't normally tell our customers this, but there is an undocumented DOS
command that will fix the problem.
User: I knew it!
Tech: Just add the line LOAD NOSMOKE.COM at the end of the CONFIG.SYS.
Letme know how it goes.
****
10 minutes later.
User: It didn't work. The power supply is still smoking.
Tech: Well, what version of DOS are you using?
User: MS-DOS 6.22.
Tech: That's your problem there. That version of DOS didn't come with NOSMOKE. Contact Microsoft and ask them for a patch that will give you ! the file. Let me know how it goes.
1 hour later.
User: I need a new power supply.
Tech: How did you come to that conclusion?
User: Well, I rang Microsoft and told him about what you said, and he started asking questions about the make of power supply.
Tech: Then what did he say?
User: He told me that my power supply isn't compatible with NOSMOKE.
This one cracked me up so hard, I had to go out to patio to laugh hard and come back to my cube...This is awesome ... especiall the last part:
"User: He told me that my power supply isn't compatible with NOSMOKE":D:D:D
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